Packers camp preview
By Gary Horton
Scouts Inc.
Three Burning Questions
1. Can future Hall of Famer Brett Favre bounce back to lead the Packers to the postseason?
Favre will turn 38 during the 2007 season. He has lost some zip on his throws as well as some of his mobility to move out of the pocket and improvise. Favre has made a living forcing balls into tight coverage and scrambling to make dramatic plays under pressure. Much of the magic has been lost over the past few seasons, but Favre still has effective tools and the confidence to lead his team. Favre is the ultimate competitor and doesn't want to retire on a sour note, so he will do what it takes to move the football and put the Packers in position to win. He bounced back in 2006 after his worst season as a professional in 2005, but it still wasn't enough. Does Favre have enough support from surrounding personnel to get to the postseason?
2. Can the defense build on its strong finish in 2006?
The Packers' defense was inconsistent in 2006 under the direction of coordinator Bob Sanders, but it finished the season strong. Can this defense continue to execute out of the base 4-3 scheme? Can it become a stabilizing force and take the pressure off an aging quarterback and help win games? In the Packers' eight losses in 2006, the defense gave up more than 24 points per game. Green Bay is going with much of the same personnel in 2007 but added a playmaker on the interior line (
Justin Harrell). Last year's first-round pick, LB
A.J. Hawk, should only be better with a year under his belt.
3. Can the special teams become an attribute rather than a detriment?
Place-kicker
Dave Rayner has a strong leg but is inconsistent beyond 30 yards. He will need to be better on his longer attempts and late in the season when the weather is a factor. Punter
Jon Ryan also has a strong leg, but he was inconsistent with his hang time, and his net average was not good in several contests. The coverage teams were not without fault, as the Packers gave up field position too often with the change of kicks. The Packers averaged less than 20 yards per return on kickoffs, with a league-worst long of 35 yards. Punt returns also lost field position, and both facets must improve for a postseason run.
The player under the microscope
RB
Brandon Jackson.
Ahman Green is an average starting NFL running back. He isn't a superstar, but he could be missed in a big way if Jackson is unable to transition quickly to the NFL game. Jackson has a lot of talent and fits Green Bay's zone-blocking scheme well. He isn't a dancer and is a decisive runner, which is exactly what the Packers are looking for, but he also did not dominate while at Nebraska and has to prove he can be a difference maker. Jackson will battle with
Vernand Morency for the starting spot, and both backs will surely see playing time early. But Green Bay knows what it has in Morency, and he lacks the potential Jackson brings to the table. The Packers did very little to improve their skill-position players on offense, which will add to the pressure on this rookie runner.
Breakout player
WR
Greg Jennings. Jennings should have a great chance to put up big numbers in this new offense. Favre surely has gained confidence in him, after Jennings' impressive rookie season. Jennings flashed big-play ability thanks to his tremendous speed. He will be a better route runner and will understand the West Coast scheme better in 2007, and he should get more balls thrown his way. With
Donald Driver having his best season as a pro (92 grabs), defensive coordinators may tilt coverage towards the veteran, which will give Jennings more opportunities.
Comeback player of the year
FS
Nick Collins. As a rookie in 2005, Collins burst on to the scene and quickly established himself as the starting free safety. He is a good athlete with quickness, speed and suddenness. His transition to the NFL was very impressive, especially since he hailed from a small college (Bethune-Cookman), but Collins regressed in his sophomore season. Green Bay has built a formidable defense with a talented front seven and two good cornerbacks. But the Packers need more production from their safeties. We expect Collins to provide the production needed and to regain the form he showed as a rookie.
Offensive philosophy
Head coach Mike McCarthy changed coordinators in the offseason and is hoping Joe Philbin can give the Packers' offense a fresh approach. Philbin will stay with the West Coast passing game, using short crossing patterns along with vertical routes to stretch deep zones. Driver had the best season of his eight-year career, and Jennings may just be the speedster opposite him the Packers have been lacking. Favre played better in 2006 but still fell short of performing at a high level. Look for more short drops and a quicker passing game to keep the pressure off a somewhat average offensive line. The Green Bay offense improved in 2006 but still wasn't able to establish a consistent ground attack, and the front office decided on new blood to carry the football. Morency and Jackson have similar running styles and should fill the void left by Green's departure. The success of this offense is based on balance, and a ground attack needs to be established. Look for McCarthy to run the ball to keep the pressure off an aging quarterback who has lost some magic.
Defensive philosophy
Defensive coordinator Bob Sanders leads a Packers' defense that showed flashes of excellent play in 2006 but could not perform well on a consistent basis. Sanders uses a base 4-3 front and two-deep zone coverage as the core of his philosophy. He employs several stunts and twists up front but rarely all-out blitzes to apply pressure on the quarterback. Defensive ends
Aaron Kampman,
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and
Cullen Jenkins generated 28 sacks in 2006. The secondary will play a good mix of man and zone, but disguising coverages and keeping opposing quarterbacks guessing is their most effective strategy. Green Bay's secondary is solid but doesn't have any outstanding playmakers, so the coaches elect to keep a good cushion on most routes. The Packers will look to become more physical against the run, since they were very erratic in this area in 2006. Both defensive tackles have good size and strength but appear to be limited-area defenders. They will use a variety of over and under fronts with their tackles. The Packers drafted talented DT Justin Harrell in the first round to give them a playmaker in the middle. The linebacking corps fields two very athletic players in A.J. Hawk and
Nick Barnett; both have great range but may need to attack downhill more aggressively against the inside ground game. Look for Sanders to mix in more eight-man fronts and zone blitzes in 2007 to force opponents into more turnovers.
Gary Horton, a pro scout for Scouts Inc., has been a football talent evaluator for more than 30 years. He spent 10 years in the NFL and 10 years at the college level before launching a private scouting firm called "The War Room."
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