Updated: April 7, 2010, 5:11 PM ET
Mock Draft 4.0: So close, so far
The draft is getting close, but the experts can't agree on many picks
By Mel Kiper and Todd McShay
ESPN.com
It's been a full month since the last time we joined forces for a mock draft, and while a lot of things have changed -- nearly every player on this mock went through a pro day during that period -- some mock scenarios have remained.
But not many. That's because the added evaluation process truly has brought about some changes on our boards. Players who struggled at the combine and lost some momentum regained it, and there are a number of players in the mock who are showing off their physical skills in workouts for the first time after not being fully healthy to participate in Indy.
As for changes, the mood at the very top has stayed relatively consistent -- chalk that one up to Sam Bradford's solid performance for scouts recently -- but beyond that, there are many changes. Free agency and trades have shifted priorities, and the mock will show a lot of shifts.
St. Louis Rams
1.
Sam Bradford
QB,
Oklahoma
Sam Bradford
QB,
Oklahoma
Kiper: The Rams have passed on
Matt Ryan and
Mark Sanchez during the past two years, and they don't want to regret missing on another player with "franchise QB" potential. Bradford could have been No. 1 over
Matthew Stafford last year, and has answered a lot of questions about his physical skills (and progress) over the past month. Concerns about his experience in the spread offense alone are real, however, and if the Rams feel intent on starting Bradford from day one, they could live to regret it.
McShay: The Rams have passed on potential franchise quarterbacks the past two seasons in favor of linemen, and we will be shocked if they do so again. Bradford has added bulk to his frame, passed medical exams on his surgically repaired throwing shoulder and had a strong showing at his pro day, so there should be no obstacles for the Rams. He comes from a wide-open offense and was generally well protected but we are confident he has the football intelligence and accuracy to develop into an upper-echelon starter a few years down the road.
Detroit Lions
Ndamukong Suh
DT,
Nebraska
2.
Ndamukong Suh
DT,
Nebraska
Kiper: There are some in Detroit who want the team to trade down for one of the tackles in this draft. It's not a terrible idea -- protecting your young QB is hugely important. However, Detroit has made some moves to upgrade along the offensive line, and then there's the countering argument: the Lions' defense was so bad last year, it made the offense focus on the passing game and lose needed balance. A better defense will help the Detroit offense. And Suh makes them better immediately.
McShay: OT Russell Okung is a possibility because QB Matthew Stafford's long-term protection is important, but defensive tackle is also a need for the Lions and they're staring at the top two prospects in the 2010 class at this point. We give Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy a slightly higher grade due to his pass-rushing skills but Suh is a better fit for a Lions defense that needs a dominant physical presence up front.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gerald McCoy
DT,
Oklahoma
3.
Gerald McCoy
DT,
Oklahoma
Kiper: As I've said before, it would be hard to pass up a potential Pro Bowl player and a guy whom many consider the best overall player in the draft at No. 3. McCoy isn't just effective against the run, he uses his quickness and strength to blow by interior linemen and disrupt the QB. Maybe the most complete talent in the draft, and that includes Suh.
McShay: The Buccaneers are getting back to their Tampa 2 defensive roots and McCoy, who is built in the
Warren Sapp mold, is the ideal fit as a one-gap penetrating 3-technique.
Washington Redskins
Russell Okung
OT,
Oklahoma State
4.
Russell Okung
OT,
Oklahoma State
Kiper: The Redskins have addressed their QB situation, now they can protect
Donovan McNabb's blind side (and help one of the trio of backs McNabb figures to be handing off to). Okung may not have the extraordinary upside of a guy like Anthony Davis, but he's the most complete left tackle available, and is a low-risk pick for a team that can't afford to miss. Unless they trade down, the Skins don't pick again until No. 103.
McShay: Donovan McNabb is an immediate upgrade at quarterback so finding the replacement for retired LOT Chris Samuels is now the most glaring need. Okung is the safest, most complete tackle prospect this class has to offer and he should be ready to serve as McNabb's blindside protector as a rookie.
Kansas City Chiefs
Eric Berry
S,
Tennessee
5.
Bryan Bulaga
OT,
Iowa
Kiper: Any question marks about Berry's physical skills were answered impressively during the testing phase, which is all he needed to maintain his standing as the premier safety of not just this draft, but as perhaps one of the best we've seen in a while. I can see the Chiefs being tempted by other players here, but Berry is a top talent and fills a need. I'll say it again: the Ed Reed comparisons are legit.
McShay: Berry is the best player remaining on the board but positional value trends say that spending top-five money on a safety doesn't make fiscal sense. Oklahoma's Trent Williams is a superior talent to Bulaga but we don't expect Scott Pioli & Co. to take a risk on a player whose commitment to the game is in question. Bulaga may top out as a very good starting right tackle but that's just fine opposite current LT
Branden Albert.
Seattle Seahawks
Trent Williams
OT,
Oklahoma
6.
Eric Berry
S,
Tennessee
Kiper: Williams is the most versatile player in the draft, a rare feat for an offensive lineman. Here's a guy who has played well at both tackle positions, and has even seen spot duty at center. A safe pick, because Williams can upgrade your offensive line in more than one place. Seattle
has to improve its O-line with one of these picks, and Williams is more coveted each week.
McShay: This is a tough call between Berry and OT Williams. The Seahawks have significant need at both positions and offensive tackle carries more weight, but Seattle could pass on Williams for the same reasons the Chiefs did one pick earlier. Plus, Berry is clearly the top defensive back in the 2010 class and he could fill a glaring hole in the middle of the Seahawks' defense.
Cleveland Browns
Dez Bryant
WR,
Oklahoma State
7.
Dan Williams
DT,
Tennessee
Kiper: I've talked to people around the league about Dez Bryant, and I can tell you the notion that there are concerns about Bryant's character is blown out of proportion. Here the Browns get the best WR in the draft, a threat they really need, and a player that, in a football environment, is a workhorse and a producer. I think K.C. will also be looking hard at Bryant at No. 5, but will ultimately pass and allow the Browns to get him.
McShay: This would be a frustrating scenario for the Browns, who should be hoping Berry falls to them at this slot. RB C.J. Spiller would be a possibility but don't count out Williams, who appears to be a reach but will garner plenty of attention over the next few picks because he's the only legitimate first-round nose tackle in this class. Finding a long-term replacement for current NT
Shaun Rogers is high on the priority list, and Rogers' recent run-in with the law might only increase the urgency.
Oakland Raiders
Jimmy Clausen
QB,
Notre Dame
8.
Trent Williams
OT,
Oklahoma
Kiper: Clausen's upcoming pro day is obviously huge, but I think he'll show he has all the physical tools to be a very good NFL passer. Bottom line, the Raiders have no answer at the QB position on their roster. I also know that money they owe to
JaMarcus Russell would not keep them from drafting Clausen if they believe he's the better long-term option. If Clausen doesn't go here, he could fall into a no-man's-land a la
Brady Quinn or
Aaron Rodgers, where a team trades into the late teens or twenties to pick him. I have ideas there, but we're strictly working within the current pick order.
McShay: Williams might have been overshadowed by OT Bruce Campbell at this year's scouting combine, but Williams certainly put up numbers that owner Al Davis can put his stamp on. As an added bonus, Williams is actually capable of developing into a good starting left tackle in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills
Bryan Bulaga
OT,
Iowa
9.
Anthony Davis
OT,
Rutgers
Kiper: The Bills need to keep whoever's throwing the ball upright, and Bulaga has the chance to be a good pass-protector at this level. I think the Bills would be thrilled to see Trent Williams available here, but in Bulaga, they have a chance to get a player at No. 9 that could go even higher. I think they simply take the best tackle on the board here.
McShay: QB Jimmy Clausen is certainly in consideration but the Bills are in no position to start a rookie quarterback behind their existing offensive line. Davis needs to be motivated and his weight must be monitored, but we would argue he's the best pure pass-blocker in the 2010 crop.
Jacksonville Jaguars
C.J. Spiller
RB,
Clemson
10.
Earl Thomas
S,
Texas
Kiper: Before they made moves to strengthen an anemic pass rush, this looked like a shoo-in for a Derrick Morgan or Jason Pierre-Paul -- and that could still happen -- but I've heard that the staff in Jacksonville feels they truly missed the presence of
Fred Taylor, and want a young home run threat to augment the offense. In their division, the Jags need to score, and based on who I've talked to, Spiller isn't an outside shot here. He really is a player they can use.
McShay: This pick could come down to a choice between Thomas and Alabama ILB Rolando McClain. The Jaguars have been burned before by drafting a safety in the first round (
Reggie Nelson), but Thomas is simply a better football player. The free safety is mentally and physically prepared to make an immediate impact as a versatile ball hawk in the Jaguars' secondary.
Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
Earl Thomas
S,
Texas
11.
Rolando McClain
ILB,
Alabama
Kiper: There are scouts who will tell you Thomas is the best pure, instinctive football player in the whole draft. He has big-time aptitude. All that aside, he also fills a developing need for Denver, because
Brian Dawkins isn't getting any younger. We've seen safeties rise late --
Donte Whitner to Buffalo,
LaRon Landry to Washington -- in recent years, and Thomas fits nicely here.
McShay: McClain is the only true inside linebacker with a first-round grade and that drives up his value. This might seem a bit early to take him, but McClain will be ready to start from day one and would be a nice centerpiece as the Broncos continue the youth movement in their fairly new 3-4 defensive scheme.
Miami Dolphins
Dan Williams
DT,
Tennessee
12.
Derrick Morgan
DE,
Georgia Tech
Kiper: Getting
Karlos Dansby minimizes a need for a player like Rolando McClain here, and the Dolphins are thin up front, and also facing suspensions (
Jason Ferguson). I liked Williams here before, and I still do. A great leverage player, he can occupy blockers and disrupt for the Fins.
McShay: We would like to see Morgan in a 4-3 front, but Miami's 3-4 scheme features bigger bodies up front and Morgan would provide the pass-rush ability and toughness against the run a depleted Miami front seven desperately needs.
San Francisco 49ers
Joe Haden
CB,
Florida
13.
Sergio Kindle
DE/OLB,
Texas
Kiper: Questions have been raised about Haden's speed during the workout process, but a solid pro day helped alleviate concerns. Haden could go higher, because he's the CB most likely to step in immediately with both superior cover skills and the physicality to play in every situation. He's a natural fit for San Fran, which needs corner help. Getting the college game's top CB here is a great get most years.
McShay: The 49ers' No. 1 priority is to find a right tackle to start opposite LT
Joe Staley, but in this scenario the top four tackles are off the board.
Manny Lawson came on last year and Kindle is a perfect fit as a pass-rusher on the other side of the line. Kindle would beef up the pass defense and is worth the pick here even though he does not fill a top need.
Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
Derrick Morgan
DE,
Georgia Tech
14.
C.J. Spiller
RB,
Clemson
Kiper: Seattle needs a pass-rusher on the edge of a 4-3 scheme, and Morgan is an ideal addition. He's got the pass-rushing skills to be a disruptive force, and the strength to hold up well in the run game. No player in college displayed more versatility from this position over the past season. If the Hawks add a top DE and OT in Round 1, they'll be, quite simply, a better football team.
McShay: The Seahawks would bypass arguably their biggest need (OT) in this first-round scenario, but the good news is they would end up with two of the top seven players in this draft. Spiller is the most dynamic skill player on the board and would instantly upgrade the attack with his versatility in the running and passing games, and he can also contribute in the return game.
New York Giants
Rolando McClain
ILB,
Alabama
15.
Mike Iupati
G,
Idaho
Kiper: McClain is the top inside linebacker in the draft, and the Giants should be happy to grab him at No. 15. A fiery leader, instinctive and a great tackler, McClain's diagnostic skills point to great coaching. I can also see the Giants tempted if a player like Thomas is available here.
McShay: McClain is a common projection here given the departure of
Antonio Pierce but with McClain off the board look for the Giants to go with Iupati. They need to reestablish a physical tone on offense and drafting a dominant interior lineman would be a good step in that direction.
Tennessee Titans
Jason Pierre-Paul
DE,
South Florida
16.
Jason Pierre-Paul
DE,
South Florida
Kiper: Pierre-Paul fits exactly what the Titans need, and would be a great value here. (I can see Jacksonville grabbing him at No. 10.) Even as a raw talent, Pierre-Paul can be productive based on a set of physical skills that remind scouts of
Mario Williams or
Jevon Kearse. A potential future sack machine on the edge of Tennessee's 4-3, I think Jeff Fisher and the Titans jump at the chance to mold this kind of talent.
McShay: Tennessee has seen its fair share of talented defensive linemen come and go under head coach Jeff Fisher, and while Pierre-Paul has a chance to become the next player on the list he is also a big-time risk. On one hand he is arguably the most naturally gifted defender on the board, but on the other hand there are concerns about his mental capacity and inexperience. However, Pierre-Paul is worth the risk at this point in the first round.
San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)
Anthony Davis
OT,
Rutgers
17.
Jimmy Clausen
QB,
Notre Dame
Kiper: Davis has the upside of a Pro Bowl player at left tackle, which is where he lined up in Piscataway, but the Niners could move him to the right side to fill that void. Davis must still develop, but he has all requisite physical skills: great feet, long arms, prototype size. San Fran will make a pick to help the O-line in one of its two teen spots, and Davis is a smart pick here.
McShay: There is a bigger need at offensive tackle but the remaining players at that position would be a reach here. We have the Niners passing on Clausen once and we don't give him a first-round grade but this seems like a reasonable spot for the No. 2 quarterback on the board. However, if Clausen gets past this spot it's hard to find another team in the first round with a primary or secondary quarterback need and he could be headed for a Brady Quinn-like free fall.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Maurkice Pouncey
C/G,
Florida
Maurkice Pouncey
C/G,
Florida
Kiper: Pittsburgh has to address the interior along the offensive line, and Pouncey has emerged as the best center-guard combo available. The Steelers need an interior force that can help them get back to running the football effectively between the tackles, and Pouncey is the player that can do that.
McShay: This seems like a perfect marriage. The Steelers want to get back to a physical, run-oriented approach and Pouncey has the versatility to play center or guard and work into the lineup sooner rather than later.
Atlanta Falcons
Brandon Graham
DE,
Michigan
19.
Brandon Graham
DE,
Michigan
Kiper: At 270 pounds, Graham has the size to be an every-down defensive end in this league. He's not just an OLB prospect. He uses great leverage to hold up against the run, and as the NCAA leader in TFL, he's a terror for opposing QBs. Think of
Dwight Freeney or
Robert Mathis, a disruptive edge player who isn't at all meek against the run.
McShay: We believe Graham is a better fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but his lack of height (6-foot-1⅜) puts some restriction on which 3-4 schemes he fits in. The Falcons have been searching for a pass-rusher for the past couple of years and Graham can play either the right or left side in a rotation with
John Abraham, who is Atlanta's only legitimate pass-rusher at this point.
Houston Texans
Kyle Wilson
CB,
Boise State
20.
Joe Haden
CB,
Florida
Kiper: I'm sticking with Wilson here. We know Atlanta's free-agent addition of
Dunta Robinson creates a void the Texans must fill, and Wilson has a refined game and is also very strong for the position. He can be a value in the return game, as well.
McShay: The Texans continue to search for playmakers on defense and with the loss of Robinson they could use a player like Haden, who has dropped a bit because of a lack of overall polish but is the kind of natural athlete who can step in and make the big plays Houston's defense has lacked.
Cincinnati Bengals
Jermaine Gresham
TE,
Oklahoma
21.
Dez Bryant
WR,
Oklahoma State
Kiper: It's no help to a team like Baltimore (where I had Gresham in the last mock) that the stock of the best TE in the draft is back up. Gresham has proven to scouts that he's physically solid after a lost season, and will be a perfect target for
Carson Palmer in what should be an improved passing game. Gresham is the total package.
McShay: Bryant is a top-10 talent but character concerns will drop him down the board, and his free fall should end here. The Bengals have shown no regard for character concerns so don't be surprised to see them ignore the baggage Bryant carries with him. There is a lot of talk about Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham here, but the Cincinnati receiving corps has been depleted this offseason and there is no better playmaker available for QB Carson Palmer.
New England Patriots
Sergio Kindle
DE/OLB,
Texas
22.
Everson Griffen
DE,
USC
Kiper: New England needs help at OLB, and Kindle is the best stack-and-shed outside 'backer in this class. And he has better versatility than some realize. He's just a decent-to-good pass-rusher, but any Patriots fan realizes that Bill Belichick doesn't just want a player for one specific role. Versatility and ranginess are important, and Kindle fits the profile.
McShay: Kindle would be a perfect fit if he fell this far, but the Patriots' primary needs on defense are pass-rush ability and size to defend the run and Griffen offers plenty in both of those areas.
Green Bay Packers
Mike Iupati
G,
Idaho
23.
Charles Brown
OT,
USC
Kiper: Iupati is an absolute force at the guard position and could be the
Steve Hutchinson of this draft. He should improve the run game immediately and has the physical skills and footwork to develop as a pass-protector. There's reason to think he could become a tackle, but he's an upgrade at guard from day one.
McShay: The Packers are aging along the offensive line and their top priority is to protect emerging star QB Aaron Rodgers. Some may think Brown is a reach here but there will be a run on offensive tackles and we believe he is solid enough as both a run- and pass-blocker to warrant late-first-round consideration. Brown is also a better player than current NFL tackles
Duane Brown and
Sam Baker, who went in similar spots in 2008.
Philadelphia Eagles
Kareem Jackson
CB,
Alabama
24.
Kyle Wilson
CB,
Boise State
Kiper: There are still some injury question marks around
Ellis Hobbs, and with the addition of the 37th pick in the McNabb trade, the Eagles can strengthen their CB group and then add a safety value such as Nate Allen or Major Wright in Round 2 and really upgrade the secondary. Jackson is fluid and displays exceptional anticipation.
McShay: OLB Sean Weatherspoon and S Taylor Mays are possibilities here but Wilson is our highest-rated remaining player and his skills as a press cover corner would fit well on an Eagles defense that recently traded away
Sheldon Brown.
Baltimore Ravens
Demaryius Thomas
WR,
Georgia Tech
25.
Demaryius Thomas
WR
Georgia Tech
Kiper: The Ravens have made moves to add help for
Joe Flacco, but drafting a young WR that can grow
with Flacco is still an important consideration. Thomas is a big, physical home run threat, and even this high, may have been undervalued because he was stuck in a running system at Tech. He's the perfect downfield target for Flacco's big arm, a guy who can make plays even when the defense knows it's coming.
McShay: Baltimore has a reputation for cashing in on the best available player and this is another opportunity to do so. Thomas would be a steal here given his size/speed combination and give QB Joe Flacco another dangerous weapon to go with offseason acquisitions
Anquan Boldin and
Donte' Stallworth.
Arizona Cardinals
Sean Weatherspoon
OLB,
Missouri
26.
Jermaine Gresham
TE,
Oklahoma
Kiper: Before you say "But Arizona needs an
inside linebacker" remember that Karlos Dansby was also an OLB at Auburn before he became a star for the Cardinals on the inside. That's who Weatherspoon can replace from day one in Arizona's 3-4. Weatherspoon is solid versus the run or the pass, and is a tackling machine. A natural fit here.
McShay: The Cardinals have seen a great deal of turnover on their roster and have bigger needs (pass-rusher, OT) than tight end, but there is not an available player who compares to Gresham in terms of natural talent. He would provide a nice security blanket for an inexperienced quarterback like
Matt Leinart.
Dallas Cowboys
Charles Brown
OT,
USC
27.
Taylor Mays
S,
USC
Kiper: Dallas has made it clear that it plans to address the left tackle position, and Brown is a natural fit here. Remember that Brown should develop, as he's a former TE with good feet and improving skills. I see him backing up
Doug Free to start his Cowboys career, before stepping in and taking over. Not an exciting pick, but a smart one.
McShay: The Cowboys would love to see Brown fall this far but he is off the board and Campbell would be a reach. You could make comparisons between Mays and former Cowboys safeties
Roy L. Williams and
Ken Hamlin, both of whom struggled against the pass, but Mays has better closing burst and range in coverage despite being somewhat inconsistent.
San Diego Chargers
Ryan Mathews
RB,
Fresno State
28.
Terrence Cody
DT,
Alabama
Kiper: Mathews would just be the prototype big, physical, between-the-tackles back to complement
Darren Sproles, but he's more than that. Mathews has shown he's capable of consistent sub-4.5 40 times and is thus a physical kind of home run threat. He didn't display great hands in Fresno, but that area of his game should improve with reps. A good back at a need position.
McShay: This would go down as a classic example of a team reaching to fill a need with the kind of player who is hard to find. Only a handful of defensive tackles are ideal fits to play the nose in a 3-4, and while Cody comes with huge red flags because of his weight issues it would not shock us to see the Chargers pull the trigger on a guy they feel could eventually replace
Jamal Williams in the middle of the defensive front.
New York Jets
Everson Griffen
DE,
USC
29.
Jared Odrick
DE,
Penn State
Kiper: Think about what Rex Ryan has done with college DEs in the 3-4. Griffen compares well to players like
Adalius Thomas and
Terrell Suggs, guys who were sack machines playing with a hand on the ground in college but had the athleticism to perform in the Ryan system. Griffen is a fantastic athlete who (I've said) will be a better pro than a college player. He could be a steal this late, and the latest Ryan success story.
McShay: The Jets are aging a bit along the defensive front and Odrick would be a nice addition given his quick first step. He could work in a rotation early in his career before eventually taking over as a full-time starter, and with his relentless style Odrick has "Rex Ryan" written all over him.
Minnesota Vikings
Taylor Mays
S,
USC
30.
Kareem Jackson
CB,
Alabama
Kiper: Cornerback is a bigger need here, but Mays is an appealing option as well, the best size-speed combination in the draft, and a player who could benefit from a new system after playing a deep center field for the Trojans last year. He also has great character and the smarts to develop his game. The physicality is there, and Mays can be better.
McShay: Jackson is one of the most underrated prospects in this draft. Minnesota does a great job taking advantage of players who slide down the board, and while cornerback is a secondary need Jackson could contribute as a sub-package corner while developing into an eventual replacement for the aging
Antoine Winfield.
Indianapolis Colts
Jared Odrick
DT,
Penn State
31.
Jerry Hughes
DE/OLB,
TCU
Kiper: The Colts are very, very average along the interior of the defensive line, and Odrick is a player versatile enough to be a disruptive, pass-rushing threat in a 4-3 or an anchor in a 3-4. He has a great motor that would fit in well to the inside of players like Mathis and Freeney. A great get this late for Indy if he's around.
McShay: There is not an available offensive tackle who would fill a need here, and Hughes seems to be perfect fit for the Colts' defense. His speed and relentlessness off the edge is exactly what Bill Polian and the coaching staff are looking for to complement Freeney and Mathis.
New Orleans Saints
Jerry Hughes
DE/OLB,
TCU
32.
Sean Weatherspoon
OLB,
Missouri
Kiper: Hughes doesn't have great size, but he has the skills to be either a 3-4 OLB -- and thus could have his name called by New England, Arizona or a couple of others -- or he could be a fantastic pass-rusher in the mold of a Dwight Freeney. This is a guy that flat out knew how to get to QBs at the college level, regardless of what was in his path.
McShay: This is a perfect fit. The Saints lost
Scott Fujita to free agency and Weatherspoon brings the same kind of leadership while providing an overall talent upgrade. Weatherspoon is a very good value at this point.
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